Thursday, June 18, 2015

Do Political Leaders Shape Society?

Do political leaders play the primary role in determining the nature of economic development, social conflict, political transition, and state building within a country?  Many political scientists have debated this question and with good reason.  States and their leaders do play a great role in shaping the economy and lives of the average citizen within society.  Political elites can implement change by reforming or creating institutions.  In turn, those institutions can create lasting changes in a country’s culture or economic system.  However, we must not allow ourselves to become dogmatists by believing that the state and its leaders play an exclusive role in shaping a country’s political system.  State and society are two sides of the same coin; each one shapes the other.   In other words, political change doesn’t come from above or below; both occur simultaneously.    
            Although this may seem obvious to most political scientists who seem to take the middle ground on this question today, attitudes were very different in the 1960’s and 1970’s in the West.  At the height of the Cold War, political scientists tended to neglect the importance of the state and political leaders in shaping the economy and society.  Capitalist regimes were fighting an ideological war with communism, so Westerners were quick to denounce the role states and their political leaders could play in fostering economic development.[1]   The failure of communist regimes to create significant economic growth only hardened these feeling.  What emerged was a field of thought in the social sciences known as structuralism, which saw the state as being little more than a playing field for different social forces competing for political power.  Structuralism places an emphasis on studying different social classes by analyzing how relations between businesses, labor unions, interest groups, and other groups within society affect the state.  This made sense for people who studied democratic, capitalist regimes in the United States and Great Britain.   Competitive elections allow different political parties and interest groups the ability to influence government decisions.  Furthermore, the Behaviorist Revolution of the 1950’s and 1960’s left little room for individual free will and autonomy.  Individual behavior was seen as being shaped by society and thus predictable. 
However, with the decline of tensions between the East and the West by the 1980’s; the independence of many new states throughout the developing world; and the growth of developmental states in East Asia, there emerged a renewed interest in analyzing the role of the state in shaping society within the academic community.  In particular, there was a revived interest in institutionalism, a field of thought in political science that analyzes how state institutions can shape society.  In fact, many structuralists incorporated institutionalism into their way of thinking.  In 1984, Peter Evans, Dietrich Rueschemeyer, Theda Skocpol, Charles Tilly and several other political scientists each wrote chapters for the book Bringing the State Back In.[2]  Their essays showed how states can play the role of an autonomous actor that can shape the lives of their citizens.  The role of individual political leaders and state institutions in shaping society was once again taken seriously. 
 One of the controversial debates mentioned in these essays and in other works was over whether or not states and political leaders can play a role in economic development.  For those coming from the Anglo Saxon tradition that upheld the economic philosophies of Adam Smith and Milton Friedman, the idea that states from above can create economic growth was illogical.[3]  According to their theories, the government should only concern itself with protecting private property and maintain the infrastructure.  It was up to private entrepreneurs who were mostly free of government restrictions to create growth; states should stay out of the business of economic planning and industrialization as high taxes and excessive regulations could hinder growth.  Government intervention in the economy would only lead to inefficiency since the sellers and buyers are in the best positions to determine what should be produced and for how much it should be sold.
However, the extensive role the state played in countries like Japan and Korea to create economic growth in the second half of the twentieth century defied the expectations of many Western political scientists.  Meredith Woo Cummings, Chalmers Johnson, and Bruce Cummings, in their book The Developmental State, showed how several governments in East Asia used a mix of selective tariffs and loans to protect the growth of local industry.[4]   The state chose to support productive companies while allowing others to fail without prejudice.  Furthermore, instead of investing resources in a welfare state, government leaders in Japan and South Korea decided to invest in long term economic development, investing tax revenue into education and health care.  In other words, the bureaucracy was an autonomous actor that fostered economic development.  Whereas central planning boards in the communist bloc failed, those in East Asia like the MITI in Japan succeeded at creating long term growth.  
In another example of relatively successful state intervention and individual initiative, Margaret Weir and Theda Skocpol, in an essay entitled “State Structures and the Possibilities for Keynesian Responses to the Great Depression in Sweden, Britain, and the United States,” showed how state spending on infrastructure and social welfare as well as economic regulations can lead to structural economic changes that can lead a country out of a depression.  Many political scientists and economists have argued that President Franklin Delano Roosevelt’s New Deal played a large role in the country’s recovery from the Great Depression.  Unlike the theory of Monetarism developed by Milton Friedman, Keynesian economics reserves a large role for political leaders to solve long term structural problems affecting an economy through the building of infrastructure and economic regulation.
States and their political leaders can also play a role in creating economic stagnation through the way they construct institutions.  As David Waldner in State Building and Late Development shows, political leaders in newly independent states in the aftermath of World War II played a great role in fostering either economic growth or stagnation depending on the decisions they made.[5]  In newly independent countries with severe conflicts among the elites, political leaders often made the choice to build regime coalitions by distributing the resources of the state to potential allies.  Rational choice theorists would say that political leaders facing serious challenges to their rule will focus on short term survival over long term economic development.  In states like Syria and Egypt, land was redistributed from the rich to the poor; wages were increased for industrial workers; bread subsidies for the poor were created; free education was provided for the masses; the bureaucracy was expanded and filled with loyal clients; many new technologies were purposely kept out of the country to protect jobs; businesses were nationalized; and tariffs were implemented to protect inefficient local industries.[6]  Unlike developmental states in East Asia, extensive resources were wasted in Egypt and Syria by leaders who were more concerned with building support for the regime and destroying potential enemies than creating long term economic development.  Bureaucracies became bloated and inefficient; taxes were not collected efficiently; and little money was left over for quality investments in education, healthcare, and the infrastructure.   Furthermore, unproductive businesses were kept afloat for political reasons as their owners or managers were allies of the political elite.  Reforms in authoritarian systems with these structural problems became difficult as the elimination of bread subsidies or privatization of businesses might lead to riots or the loss of important political allies.  Political elites played a large role in creating the conditions for economic stagnation due to the nature in which they built the institutions of the country.   On the other hand, political leaders in countries with relatively united elite that focused on long term development like Park Chung Hee in South Korea created merit based bureaucracies that can build and maintain infrastructure; collect taxes efficiently; educate the public; and maintain the rule of law.  The result has been economic growth. 
Political leaders can also play a role in shaping political conflict like revolutions.   Throughout the nineteenth and most of the twentieth century, revolutions were seen as processes that started from below and not the other way around.  Revolutions were supposedly the product of disenfranchised lower classes rising up against unpopular regimes.  This view point was predominant among structuralists in the 1970’s.  However, the second half of the twentieth century has witnessed a plethora of revolutions of all shapes and sizes across the developing world.   Political Scientists like Jeff Goodwin, Timur Kuron, and Jack Goldstone argue that revolutions are incredibly diverse in their origins and unpredictable.[7]  Sometimes, elites play a large role in how they play out.  For example, divides among the elites that emerge due to changing international or domestic factors can play a role in fostering revolutions.   In certain cases, factions within the elite can lead revolutions from above as was the case with Mustafa Kamal in Turkey during the 1920’s or Gamal Abdel Nasser and the Young Officers in 1952.  In other cases, elites can make the strategic decision to defect when a revolution is already in process and join the opposition.  This was the case in Tunisia’s 2011 revolution when the military leaders made the decision to not fire on crowds of protestors, forcing President Zine al Abidine Ben Ali to flee the country.   Furthermore, elites can unwittingly cause a revolution through specific political choices like Mikhail Gorbachev’s decision to bring about gradual economic and political reforms through Perestroika and Glasnost in the middle of the 1980’s.  Gorbachev’s policies created structural changes in Russian society that played a major role in the revolutions that hit Eastern Europe from 1989 to 1991. 
The decisions of political leaders can also have repercussions for civil society and linkage institutions like political parties, interest groups and electoral systems.  President Boris Yeltsin’s decision during the writing of Russia’s 1993 constitution to allow many of the lower houses’ representatives to be decided by a proportional electoral system inadvertently led to the strengthening of political parities as this electoral system requires candidates to be a member of a political party, thus barring many independent candidates from taking office.  The result was the creation of a multi-party system.  In the case of the United States, the 1791 constitution created a first past the post electoral system for the House of Representatives, which has led to the formation of a two party system.  These electoral systems require candidates to obtain near a majority of the votes in their district, which means that they require a substantial percentage of voters.  Small third parties don’t fare well in these systems, so the tendency is for parties on the left and right to consolidate.  Different laws and regulations can affect the political behavior of the masses, often in unforeseen ways.
Although it is true that individual leaders and the state have a great affect on society, I do not want to promote the idea that the direction of influence is only top down.  Developments within society at large often influence the decisions of political leaders and lead to changes within institutions.  Social constructivists would argue that the individual leaders are products of the culture in which they were brought up in, so the decisions that they make aren’t autonomous from the rest of society.  For example, an individual politician in the United States might know that the rational thing to do is reform the Electoral College, which is the electoral system for electing the president.  However, Americans are so culturally attached to the provisions in the constitution that passing new amendments is nearly impossible unless something drastic happens.  Some politicians share this cultural affinity for the constitution; others don’t, but they are forced to pretend that they do to avoid political repercussions.  Although an individual politician’s decision might seem autonomous, he grew up within a particular culture and was influenced by the structures and institutions within the country.  This is true whether or not we are talking about Mikhail Gorbachev, Mostafa Kamal, Abdel Nasser, Thomas Jefferson, or Park Chung Hee.  Of course, we can also argue that these men altered the cultures that had shaped them, which in turn influenced future political leaders.  Therefore, political leaders and society influence each other.  It is important to recognize that political change comes from above and below simultaneously. 

Work Cited Page
1. Bellin, Eva.  "Reconsidering the Robustness of Authoritarianism in the Middle East: Lessons from the Arab Spring," Comparative Politics, January, 2012: 127-49.

2. Evans, Peter, Dietrich Rueschemeyer, and Theda Skocpol, eds.  Bringing the State Back In.  Press Cambridge University Press: Cambridge, 1985.

3. Evans, Peter. “The State as Problem and Solution: Predation, Embedded Autonomy and Adjustment,” in The Politics of Economic Adjustment: International Constraints,
Distributive Politics, and the State, ed. Stephan Haggard and Robert Kaufman. Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1992.  

4. Goldstone, Jack A., 2001. “Toward a Fourth Generation of Revolutionary Theory,” Annual Review of Political Science 4, 139-187.

5. Goodwin, Jeff. "Towards a New Sociology of Revolutions," Theory and Society, Vol. 23, No. 6 (Dec. 1994): 731-66.

6. Kuran, Timur.  "Now out of Never: The Element of Surprise in the East European Revolution of 1989," World Politics, Vol. 44, No.1, Oct. 1991: 7-48.

7. Kuran, Timur.  "Sparks and Prairie Fires: A Theory of Unanticipated Political Revolution," Public Choice, Vol 61. No. 1 (Apr. 1989): pg 41-74.

8. Owen, Roger.  State, Power, and Politics in the Making of the Modern Middle East. Routledge: London, 2004.

9. Gregory, Paul, and Robert Stuart.  Comparing Economic Systems In the Twenty First Century.  Houghton Mifflin Company: New York, 2000.

10. Waldner, David.  State Building and Late Development.  Cornell University Press: New York, 1999.

11. Weber, Max.  The Theory of Social and Economic Organization.  Oxford University Press: New York, 1947.


12. Woo-Cumings, Meredith.  The Developmental State.  Cornell University Press: Ithaca, 1999.



[1] Gregory, Paul, and Robert Stuart.  Comparing Economic System in the Twenty First Century.  Houghton Mifflin Company: New York, 2000.
[2] Evans, Peter. “The State as Problem and Solution: Predation, Embedded Autonomy and Adjustment,” in The Politics of Economic Adjustment: International Constraints, Distributive Politics, and the State, ed. Stephan Haggard and Robert Kaufman. Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1992.    
[3] Gregory, Ibid.
[4] Woo-Cumings, Meredith.  The Developmental State.  Cornell University Press: Ithaca, 1999.
[5] Waldner, David.  State Building and Late Development.  Cornell University Press: New York, 1999.
[6] Owen, Roger.  State, Power, and Politics in the Making of the Modern Middle East. Routledge: London, 2004.
[7] Goldstone, Jack A., 2001. “Toward a Fourth Generation of Revolutionary Theory,” Annual Review of Political Science 4, 139-187, Goodwin, Jeff. "Towards a New Sociology of Revolutions," Theory and Society, Vol. 23, No. 6 (Dec. 1994): 731-66, Kuran, Timur.  "Now out of Never: The Element of Surprise in the East European Revolution of 1989," World Politics, Vol. 44, No.1, Oct. 1991: 7-48, and Kuran, Timur.  "Sparks and Prairie Fires: A Theory of Unanticipated Political Revolution," Public Choice, Vol 61. No. 1 (Apr. 1989): pg 41-74.

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